Spying Reality
Monday, July 26, 2004
I shake my head (sideways) at the mega hype about the "failure" of the spy agencies to discern that Saddam had no WMD. There's an indignant implication that any decent spy agency would necessarily know what a potential enemy was up to.
Has everybody forgotten Pearl Harbour, 9/11, Tet, Inchon, Barbarossa, Enigma, U-Boats knowing convoy routes, etc, etc? History is full of intelligence "failures". Why? Simply because the other guy is trying as hard to deceive and scrutinise us as we are trying to deceive and scrutinise him.
Sure, we make quick adjustments after a "failure", but it's always going to be game of catch-up.
An odd twist about this particular intelligence "failure" is that Saddam actively encouraged the world to believe he still had WMD - by kicking out the inspectors.
Philip O'Carroll